Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Forward looking in Y2008


Everyone seems to be talking about recession these days. But as far as investing is concerned, the 'R' word just doesn't matter. Why? Let me explain. By definition, a recession can only be confirmed after 2 consecutive quarters in which "real" GDP (adjusted for inflation) declines. So normally, the public will only know that they are in a recession 6 months after it started. At that time, it will be too late to pull out your money from equities.

Basically, successful investing is about having foresight. Search for business that have a high probability of continuing their growth and cash flow regardless of economic conditions. If you are not convinced, look at the price chart (attached picture) of the company called Whole Food. Besides that, one should also be on the lookout for corporate actions that are potential catalysts which will propel the stock price higher. To achieve excellent returns in Y2008, strong stock-picking acumen is needed. You can no longer rely on a rising tide to lift all boats.

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